2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Round 1

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Lightning (1) vs. Devils (WC2)
My prediction: Lightning in 4
RESULT: LIGHTNING IN 5
Post-Series Thoughts: As expected, the Lighting just outmanned the Devils in just about every area. I'm actually surprised that Jersey stole a game. Well played, Tampa.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Lightning have the edge in almost every area. The only way I see Jersey pulling an upset is through the play of one person: Taylor Hall. He has been spectacular. If the Lightning find a way to even marginally shut him down, though, this series should be short.

Capitals (1) vs. Blue Jackets (WC1)
My prediction: Capitals in 5
RESULT: CAPITALS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Jackets put up a good fight. A great fight, actually. And they should be proud of what they accomplished this year. They just met a superior team. The best news for them is that Bobrovsky played fantastic. He has gotten better every playoff series he has played, and he wasn't the reason they lost any of these games. That bodes well for the future. The Caps played some great hockey.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I just don't think the Jackets have the capital (see what I did there?) to compete against Washington, who is stronger is just about every area. 

Penguins (2) vs Flyers (3)
My prediction: Flyers in 7
RESULT: OFFICIALS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: It is INFURIATING playing the Penguins. It's not just the ridiculous calls that are made against the Flyers (there are plenty), it's the fact that the Penguins get away with a LUDICROUS amount of the exact same penalties that the Flyers are called for (plus a bunch more). It's absolutely disgusting. You should be ashamed, NHL. Ashamed. And it's not just the Flyers. A couple of years ago, I asked a friend here in Columbus (a huge Blue Jackets fan) who his least favorite team to play against was, and he said, "The Penguins. You have to play them AND the officials, every time." He's right.
Pre-Series Thoughts: Yes, I am biased, and yes I know the Flyers are huge underdogs in this series. And on paper, the Penguins should dominate this series, like they did the regular season series against the Flyers. But I'm going with my gut, and going out on a limb here. I believe the Flyers will show up in this series. They have shown they can play against anyone in the league when they play a full 60 minute effort. A lot hinges on Brian Elliott, so hopefully he is back to health. We'll also have to play against the officials, as every team always has to vs the Penguins. 

Boston (2) vs. Toronto (3)
My prediction: Boston in 7
RESULT: BOSTON IN 7
Post-Series Thoughts: Toronto really gave Boston a run for their money, as I expected. But in the end, Boston's depth helped them prevail.
Pre-Series Thoughts: This is a really close matchup. Toronto has been playing consistently great hockey lately. Boston has not. But overall Boston is deeper and I think if they come ready to play their best, they will take this series. But I don't think the Leafs will make it easy.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Predators (1) vs. Avalance (WC2)
My prediction: Predators in 4
RESULT: PREDATORS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Colorado actually put up a great fight. Their fans should be proud of what they did. They just happened to end up playing the best team in the NHL.
Pre-Series Thoughts: Nashville is the best team in the NHL this year. The Avalanche barely squeaked into the playoffs. Enough said.

Golden Knights (1) vs. Kings (WC1)
My prediction: Knights in 6
RESULT: KNIGHTS IN 4
Post-Series Thoughts: This series wasn't even close. The Kings only managed 3 goals in the entire series. Their experience really didn't help, and they looked lost and outmanned this entire series.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Knights are the surprise Cinderella story of all sports this year. An expansion team that ended up a #1 seed? And they deserve it. They have done really well, played great as a team. I don't think the Kings can hang, though they have lots of playoff experience and might steal a game or two.

Jets (2) vs. Wild (3)
My prediction: Jets in 7
RESULT: JETS IN 5
Post-Series Thoughts: This series wasn't as long as I expected. The Jets came to play, and really had their way with the Wild through the whole series. Well done.
Pre-Series Thoughts: This is actually a pretty good matchup, at least on paper. Hard to call this one, but I'm going with the Jets to pull it out in a long series.

Ducks (2) vs.  Sharks (3)
My prediction: Ducks in 5
RESULT: SHARKS IN 4
Post-Series Thoughts: This was an exercise in complete domination and perhaps the first real stunner of 2018. 4 goals for the Ducks in the entire series, and they got completely shellacked 8-1 in game 3. No contest here.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Ducks rolled into the playoffs with a 10-1-1 record. Also, Ryan Miller hasn't won in the postseason for quite a while, and the Sharks limped into the playoffs. I think this series could go longer, but I'm guessing the Ducks get out in 5.

2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Finals

FINALS
Nashville vs. Pittsburgh
My prediction: Predators in 6
RESULT: Penguins in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Predators outplayed the Penguins for most of this series. They deserved to win. The NHL thought otherwise. It is truly the epitome of frustration to watch the Penguins in the playoffs. No other team has a chance to compete when their goals are disallowed and the Penguins get away with what they do. Rant over. Congratulations to the "winners" of the 2017 Stanley Cup. :-/
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Penguins should not have made it out of the last round. They got a lot of assistance from very questionable officiating, directly leading to one of their goals. But even still, with all of their firepower, they just aren't as strong as the Predators in any overall area. And the Predators have had more rest.

2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Conference Finals

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Senators vs. Pittsburgh
My prediction: Senators in 7
RESULT: Penguins in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: I've made my thoughts on the Penguins well known. It is INFURIATING watching what happens with the officiating when the Penguins (the NHL's golden ticket) are in the playoffs. The Penguins' second goal came off of an AWFUL call (or corresponding missed call, however you look at it). There were bad calls both ways, but worse than that, there were some missed calls. Blatant too many men on the Senators was missed, and there were 5 or 6 dozen blatant slashing, tripping, and clutching/grabbing (interference) calls missed against the Penguins. Still, you have to give them credit for persevering with all of the injuries they've sustained. Bring on the Predators.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I still think the Pens are overachieving in this year's playoffs. I also think the Senators have dispatched two different teams that were both significantly better on paper. Give them credit for clawing their way this far. I'm thinking they'll do the same here.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Ducks vs Predators
My prediction: Predators in 7
RESULT: Predators in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Predators just showed why they belong in the Stanley Cup Finals. My odds on favorite to win it all.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Ducks have showed they have a right to be here. But the Predators are clicking and have a stronger defense.

2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Round 2

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Capitals vs. Pittsburgh
My prediction: Capitals in 7
RESULT: Penguins in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: this one indeed went to 7 games, but the Pens just brought it home in the last game. Holtby was solid in the entire series, but so was Fleury, and the Pens' big guns just showed up more in game 7. It's that simple.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Caps are just firing on all cylinders right now, and while the Pens are deep, they have a few gaps in their game. I expect this to be a nasty series, but I think the Caps' firepower and goaltending will be the difference.

NY Rangers vs Senators
My prediction: Rangers in 5
RESULT: Senators in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Well this one went this way because of one player: Lundquist. Rather than continuing his last-round form, he went back to how he looked in the regular season: average. And average was not enough to beat this determined Senators team.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I didn't pick NY to get out of last round, and I wouldn't pick them to go further in this round, either, if they were playing anyone other than the Sens. The Senators had an impressive series against a better Bruins squad. But Boston was beat up, and every single one of the games were by one goal and/or in overtime. Plus with Henrik looking back to form, I'm not even sure this will go 5.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Ducks vs Oilers
My prediction: Oilers in 7
RESULT: Ducks in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: This was a fantastic series. Well played by both sides. It could have gone either way in the end, and the Ducks just came up slightly bigger in game 7.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Ducks are a really strong team. Really strong. But the Oilers are playing great hockey, and have everyone contributing. I think on paper the Ducks are stronger, but the Oilers are playing a better cohesive team game.

Blues vs Predators
My prediction: Predators in 6
RESULT: Predators in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Pretty much just as I called it. High scoring series and the Preds just ended up with the edge. Well played.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Blues are playing really strong hockey right now. They played much better in the first round than I expected, but the Predators have the NHL's best defense, great coaching, and some serious firepower. I expect this to be either a really high scoring series, or a really low scoring series. I suspect high. 

2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Round 1

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Capitals (1) vs. Toronto (8)
My prediction: Capitals in 5
RESULT: Capitals in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Leafs put up a good fight, actually. They were pretty resilient in this series, and showed that they have a bright future under Babcock. But the Caps were just too strong. They are firing on all cylinders and outside of a few random breakdowns, they owned this series. The 2 games the Leafs won weren't as close as they seemed. They were both high scoring games but they were OT wins that could have gone either way. I think the Caps will go deep this year.
Pre-Series Thoughts: Give Mike Babcock credit for getting the Leafs this far in a shorter time than expected. They've played well down the stretch (for the most part). But they just can't hang with the Caps. I think they MIGHT steal one game, but I expect this to be a short series.

Canadiens (2) vs. NY Rangers (7)
My prediction: Canadiens in 6
RESULT: Rangers in 6
Post-Series: I think the main reason the Rangers won this is because Kenrik looked back to form, despite his regular season dip. I also think the Canadiens underachieved and the Rangers overachieved a bit.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I've gone back and forth on this one, but I just think Henrik has been a let down this year (I feel that he's always been overrated, but had a definitely down year) and I just think the Habs are stronger throughout their lineup.

Penguins (3) vs Blue Jackets (4)
My prediction: Blue Jackets in 6
RESULT: Penguins in 5
Post-Series Thoughts: The Jackets were just outmanned by a superior squad. I really expected more out of them, but they just looked on their heels most of this series.
Pre-Series Thoughts: On paper, Pittsburgh is the stronger team, and the Jackets limped into the playoffs with a pretty sad record to end the season. But if Bob plays up to his earlier-season form and Tortorella has them ready, I think the Jackets could go deep this year. 

Ottawa (5) vs. Boston (6)
My prediction: Boston in 6
RESULT: Ottawa in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Ottawa really showed up in this series, and Boston looked out of sorts the whole time. I'm not sure what it was...they just looked disjointed for much of this series. And their injured defense certainly didn't help. Kudos to Ottawa for a fantastic series.
Pre-Series Thoughts: Boston is just a much stronger team. I'd call this a 4 game series, but the Bruins' blue line is pretty banged up. But their special teams will be a huge difference, and they're just stronger overall.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Blackhawks (1) vs. Predators (8)
My prediction: Blackhawks in 7
RESULT: Predators in 4
Post-Series Thoughts: Wow I got this one wrong. After looking so good in the regular season, the Hawks fell apart. They were stifled by the Preds' defense, and weren't really ever in this series. Toews was a complete no show. Great job by Nashville.
Pre-Series Thoughts: Nasvhille has arguably the best defense in the NHL. But the Blackhawks are looking back to form after a let down last year. I think the series will go deep, but expect the Hawks to prevail.

Ducks (2) vs. Flames (7)
My prediction: Ducks in 6
RESULT: Ducks in 4
Post-Series Thoughts: So, it turned out Elliott didn't play as well as he did down the stretch, and even then the Flames were just overwhelmed by a better team.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Ducks are just a much stronger team. The only reason I think it goes to 6 is because of how well Elliott played down the stretch. I just don't think that will be enough.

Wild (3) vs. Blues (5)
My prediction: Wild in 6
RESULT: Blues in 5
Post-Series Thoughts: Man, the Blues showed up to play. And this series came down to goaltending, largely. The Wild looked tired at times, but basically Allen outplayed Dubnyk. Which shocked me, and a lot of other people. But kudos to the Blues for making it happen.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I'm not even sure this one will go this long. The Blues have a solid lineup, but Budreau is the difference here. I'd argue he's the best coach in the NHL currently, and I think this series will show why (not that he needs it to; he's pretty much already proven it in countless ways).

Oilers (4) vs.  Sharks (6)
My prediction: Oilers in 7
RESULT: Oilers in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Oilers just played a great series, as I expected, and overwhelmed the Sharks even more than I expected. I think they'll go deep. There are just no major weak areas of their game right now.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Oilers are firing on all cylinders, and it's time for their superstars to step up. I expect McDavid to be a major factor in this series. He's been made out to be a superstar, but until you win some playoff series, you're just another player with potential.

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Finals

FINALS
Penguins vs. Sharks
My prediction: Sharks in 6
RESULT: PENGUINS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Congratulations to the Penguins winning the Stanley Cup. No one in all of sports deserves it less. The Penguins ended up playing better than they actually are, and the Sharks played far worse. In fact, I'd chalk this series result up to coaching. Give the Penguins coach credit for getting his team to overachieve, and fault DeBoer for his team playing so poorly. Whatever the reason, though, this one stings for anyone that's a fan of the sport.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I don't think the Penguins deserve to be in the finals. They overachieved through the first few rounds, and I feel they got a lot of help getting there. That said, they finally had their two biggest superstars show up and start scoring. If that continues, this could series could go the distance. But I think the Sharks are deeper, they're more physical, and I think they're just a better team overall. Outside of more interference from the officials, I say Sharks in 6.

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Conference Finals

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Penguins vs. Lightning
My prediction: Lightning in 6
RESULT: PENGUINS IN 7
Post-Series Thoughts: I was wrong again about the Pens in this series. But I don't like the way they did it. Crysby hooks the stick out of a Lightning player's hand right off the faceoff in the third period with both referees looking right at it, no call. Cullen commits a knee on knee hit against Stralman, no call. With 35 seconds left in the 3rd period, two Penguins jump and sit on two Lightning players who are trying to get to the puck to win the faceoff. No call despite the blatant interference. Say what you will, but there's no question the Penguins get a little (okay, a lot of) help from the officials. Give them credit for outdueling a faster team that had a dramatically better goalie, though.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I've consistently chosen against the Pens in this years playoffs, and have consistently been wrong. But they've done it on the backs of primarily two players: Kessel and Murray (and to be fair, though to a lesser extent, Hagelin). Kessel has really turned things around. What a difference quality teammates make! And Murray has played far better than anyone had the right to expect. However, the Pens went a long, physical series against the Caps, where the Lightning have been resting. And as well as Murray has played, Tampa has the edge in goal. They are also faster and have been seeing production from all over the ice. I give this to Tampa in 6, though I wouldn't at all be surprised if this goes the distance.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Blues vs. Sharks
My prediction: Sharks in 6
RESULT: SHARKS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Sharks' depth here was, indeed, the difference. Also I'm a big Hitchcock fan but the Blues made some odd decisions in goal. In the end, the Sharks just brought their game and when they are on, they are hard to beat.
Pre-Series Thoughts: Both of these teams are strong offensively, both are coming off long, hard-fought previous series, and both dominated in their series-clinching wins last round. But the Sharks are more balanced and deeper throughout their lineup, and the Blues have been inconsistent. Elliott has been phenomenal, but I think the Sharks' overall depth overwhelms the Blues' strength in goal. I'm taking the Sharks in 6.

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Round 2

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Capitals vs. Penguins
My prediction: Capitals in 6
RESULT: PENGUINS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: For two high-powered teams in the regular season, both teams turned in a pretty anemic offense. And though neither goalie faced a ridiculous challenge, chalk this one up to Murray, who played far better than anyone expected. Look for a goaltender controversy even once Fleury is healthy. The Caps' playoff curse continues.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Penguins just have so much depth. But the Caps have a goaltender playing out of his mind, and arguably the most potent offensive threat in the league (Yes, I would take Ovechkin over Crosby). Also I think the special teams edge goes to the Caps (albeit not by much). Barring injuries or other unforseen events, I see the Caps taking this one. I'm calling it in 6, but I wouldn't be surprised if goes the distance.

Lightning vs Islanders
My prediction: Lightning in 7
RESULT: LIGHTNING IN 5
Post-Series Thoughts: The Isles just couldn't muster up enough of...anything, really...to overcome the Bolts' energy and speed in this series. Combine that with a goalie that is playing great hockey, and this one wasn't much of a contest.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Lightning are faster and have the better goalie. The Isles have more grit and are coming off a hard-fought series win against an arguably better team. But I think the Lightning are deeper and their edge in speed and goal mean I give this series to the Lightning.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Stars vs. Blues
My prediction: Blues in 6
RESULT: BLUES IN 7
Post-Series Thoughts: The Stars really made this a series; they just didn't show up 100% consistently enough to take it away from the Blues. On the other hand, the Blues didn't show up 100% consistently either...just more so than the Stars did. But these are two teams that, when they're playing their best, are hard to beat. If the Blues can find a way to do that each and every game, they make a formidable opponent.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I almost want to go the other way on this one. Dallas has so many offensive threats. But the Blues have a better goalie and they knocked off the reigning champs in a gritty series. I think the Blues take this one.

Sharks vs. Predators
My prediction: Sharks in 6
RESULT: SHARKS IN 7
Post-Series Thoughts: The Sharks are probably the strongest team playing right now. Kudos to the Preds for taking them to 7 games, but game 7 kind of showed what the Sharks can do when their backs are against the wall.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Preds are rolling from their series, but the Sharks took down the Kings relatively easily and will be more well-rested. The Sharks have a better top line, and I think they have the edge in goal, even though the Preds have a slightly stronger blue line. As with the both teams' last series, I think this will come down to who wants it more and (therefore) grits it out, but I give the edge to the Sharks.

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, Round 1

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Capitals (1) vs. Flyers (7)
My prediction: Flyers in 7
RESULT: CAPITALS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Have to give the Capitals credit. This series primarily came down to special teams. The Flyers outplayed Washington for much of this series 5 on 5...the exceptions being game 5, which Washington dominated but lost, and game 3, which Washington dominated and won (big time). But with the penalty differential and Washington's red hot power play ended up being the difference. The Flyers power play was anemic (1 for 24?!?) and between their mediocre penalty killing and the Capitals' excellent power play, special teams made the difference. The upside is, both teams' goalies played out of their minds (as did Mason, for the most part). The future looks bright for both clubs.
Pre-Series Thoughts: On paper, this is a clear Capitals victory. But I think the Flyers will make it difficult. They've proven to be extremely resilient this year and they'll be playing for team owner Ed Snider who just passed away. Plus, Washington has a history of choking in the playoffs and, accordingly, I think this one could go either way. Washington does have more depth and a far more experienced playoffs coach, but I think it will be a long, physical series and that favors the Flyers. Given their solid fundamental play down the stretch, I think they'll take it (though I might be the only one in the world who thinks so) in 7.

Penguins (2) vs. Rangers (4)
My prediction: Penguins in 7
RESULT: PENGUINS IN 5
Post-Series Thoughts: I expected the Rangers to show up more in this series, but the ultimate difference was Lundquist. I've said for years that the "King" is overrated, but he really dropped the ball in this series. Without solid goaltending, no chance for the Rangers.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I've gone back and forth on this one. On the one hand, I think the Penguins are the superior team. Better defensively and offensively, and better in special teams. They've also played some of their best hockey down the stretch. But they also have their primary AND backup goalies injured. And the Rangers closed out the season strong as well. In the end, though, gut instinct says the Pens will take this in a long series.

Florida (3) vs Islanders (5)
My prediction: Florida in 5
RESULT: ISLANDERS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: I'm really surprised by this, probably more than any other series. Give the Isles credit; they earned these wins with grit and determination. Nice job in their first playoff series win since 1993.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I think Florida is a bit overrated, but I just don't think the Islanders are on their level. They might steal a game, but Florida is a much stronger team here. Their special teams are a challenge, but their 5-on-5 is fantastic. Panthers in 5.

Lightning (6) vs. Red Wings (8)
My prediction: Lightning in 7
RESULT: LIGHTNING IN 5
Post-Series Thoughts: The Lightning had no trouble closing this one out. The Red Wings just seemed like they were out of gas for much of this series and seemed overwhelmed by the Lightning's energy and speed, and Bishop was phenomenal.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I almost want to pick the Wings for this one. The Lightning have overachieved, I believe, and the Wings have underachieved. Also the Lightning seem to have trouble the last few years in closing out series, while the Wings are perennial playoff contenders. Also, Stamkos is out and Hedman is day-to-day, which could spell trouble for Tampa. But Detroit has stumbled down the stretch and their goal differential is troubling. I think Tampa's speed strikes down the Wings in 7.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Stars (1) vs. Wild (8)
My prediction: Stars in 4
RESULT: STARS IN 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Wild stole a couple of games here, which really surprised me. Still, the Stars were just too strong.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I just don't see any way the Wild can beat the Stars. The Wild have been very inconsistent and the Stars have a highly potent offense. I can't see the Wild taking a game here.

Blues (2) vs. Blackhawks (3)
My prediction: Blackhawks in 6
RESULT: BLUES IN 7
Post-Series Thoughts: Color me surprised here. The Blues' depth just won out, and they found ways to beat Crawford. Still, it took 7 games and was decided, in the end, by 1 goal. But good job to the Blues who got it done. The tide is turning in St. Louis and there's a lot for Blues fans to be excited about.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Blackhawks are a proven playoff team, with core leaders who know how to win when it counts. The Blues have lots of depth at every position, but Crawford has been playing bananas. I think the Blues might steal a game or two but give it to the Hawks in 6.

Ducks (4) vs. Predators (7)
My prediction: Ducks in 5
RESULT: PREDATORS IN 7
Post-Series Thoughts: If you had asked me before the playoffs began who would win it all, the Ducks would have been one of the teams on my list. You have to give the Predators credit, though: they duked this out. This was a hard-fought series and the Preds just seemed to want it more. Kudos to them. On to round 2!
Pre-Series Thoughts: I don't think there's any way the Predators can win this series. And that's not a knock on the Predators; the Ducks are just that strong (in comparison). 

Kings (5) vs.  Sharks (6)
My prediction: Kings in 6
RESULT: SHARKS IN 5
Post-Series Thoughts: Color me surprised here. Not only did the Sharks take the series, but they did it in fairly easy fashion, their only loss coming in overtime. The Kings just looked outclassed most of this series, as if they were out of energy or playing through energy. Give the Sharks credit; they showed up to play and made it happen.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I think the Kings are just a stronger team overall and the Sharks have overachieved a bit. The Kings' puck possession is sick and I just don't see a way that the sharks can win this. 

Pro-Life, Pro-Choice and A Way Forward

It's been a while since I've posted, mostly gearing up for a new ministry opportunity and a move. But I want to link to a post from pastor Scott Sauls on this potentially incendiary issue. I believe he handles it with compassion and sensitivity and with the right biblical spirit.

http://scottsauls.com/2015/07/14/on-planned-parenthood-mother-and-child-and-justice-for-all/

One sentiment that I'll call out, specifically, because I think it is crucially important:
"...is it enough for you to look at [a pregnant] ten-year old girl and her parents and say, “You shall not murder. Now that we have that settled, go in peace, be warmed and filled—Take care of yourselves while I head off to the next picket line or political rally”—without giving them any of the things that they need (James 2:16)?"

The way forward, then, that Sauls rightly calls out, is that the Church is called to care for all...the unborn, the distressed and poverty-stricken mothers, the disabled...even those on death row. All life matters to God, period. We can't be pro-life and then care little for the needs of young single mothers or stand in favor of capital punishment...at least, not without being morally inconsistent. Our ethic should not be political position, but love and compassion and care for all.

This ethic is not easy, nor comfortable. But "love one another" is messy. It means rolling up our sleeves and taking the difficult path. It's easy to posture politically, or theologically. It's much more difficult to love in deed and in action.

2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, Finals

STANLEY CUP FINALS
Blackhawks (West 1) vs Lightning (East 1)
My prediction: Blackhawks in 7
RESULT: Blackhawks in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: This turned out to be a fantastic series. My guess is that Bishop was injured more significantly that we suspected (EDIT: confirmed, torn groin), but he still played absolutely incredible hockey. Game 6 was one of the best-played games I've seen by a losing team. Tampa played a great game. Great series overall, but especially game 7. The Hawks just had too much skill and Quenville's system is just too solid for Tampa's speed to overcome. Honestly I think Keith was the difference in this series. If not for him, the Bolts take this series. He's my call for MVP (EDIT: confirmed).
Congratulations to the 2015 Stanley Cup champions, the Chicago Blackhawks!
Pre-Series Thoughts: This is an extremely closely matched pair of teams. I expect a great series. The Bolts have played great hockey, and they closed it out against the Rangers. Bishop has been great (more so than the inexplicably inconsistent Crawford). But the Hawks have experience on their side, and a deeper roster. They've also started playing their best hockey when it matters most. Of course, the Bolts have a more explosive offense at times, but it can be inconsistent. Ultimately I believe this will come down to goaltending and special teams. Both teams have really high powered offense. The question is, who will be more inconsistent...Crawford, or the Bolts offense? I give a slight edge to the Hawks. I almost want to pick the Hawks in 6, but the Bolts are just playing high octane hockey. So Hawks in 7.

2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, Conference Finals

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rangers (1) vs. Lightning (2)
My prediction: Lightning in 7
RESULT: Lightning in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: This series did, indeed, go the distance. Hard fought on both sides, great goaltending on both sides, with a couple of stinkers thrown in for each team as well, but in the end, the Bolts' speed and offense won the series for them. Down goes Henrik in a game 7, too.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Lightning are a quick team, and they hold the edge in the regular season series. While Bishop is a great goalie, and I think Lundqvist is overrated, I do think Henrik gets the edge in goal. I think the Rangers have the edge in goal and on defense, but Tampa has the edge in speed and in offense, and they generally play better as a team. Honestly I think this series could go either way but my guess is that it will go deep, and in the end I'm picking Tampa Bay in 7.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Ducks (1) vs. Blackhawks (2)
My prediction: Ducks in 6
RESULT: Blackhawks in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: My gut was wrong. The Hawks again showed why they are elite team. They wore the Ducks down. In the end, their best players stepped up and their goaltending, while a bit uneven, got the job done. Well done Hawks.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I still think the Ducks are the strongest team in this year's playoffs, with the best coach in the NHL (apologies to Babcock, but Budreau has even better numbers over his career, often with less to work with). Chicago can't be counted out, as they have a bunch of really skilled guys that have been to the dance before, and have come away winners. Still, I have to go with my gut here and pick the Ducks in 6, though I could see it going to 7 games.

2015 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, Round 2

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rangers (1) vs. Capitals (2)
My prediction: Rangers in 6
RESULT: Rangers in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: The Rangers had a bit more trouble with the Caps than I expected, almost entirely because of the phenomenal goaltending of Holtby. Even with Holtby turning in a fantastic showing, the Rangers just barely got the edge. In game. In overtime. Few series are closer than that.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Capitals pushed through round 1, but the Rangers are a much stronger team with more depth. The only way the Capitals win this is if Ovechkin is unbelievable, and Holtby stands on his head. Rangers in 6.

Canadiens (1) vs. Lightning (2)
My prediction: Lightning in 6
RESULT: Lightning in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: The Habs put up a darn good fight and took the Lightning the distance. In the end the Bolts took them down, but give the Habs credit for showing up far more than I expected in this series.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Lightning dominated the Habs in the regular season, and I don't see any reason that won't continue here. The post-season is a different story, but in this case I think the Lightning take out the Habs in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Ducks (1) vs. Flames (2)
My prediction: Ducks in 4
RESULT: Ducks in 5
Post-series Thoughts: The Flames actually played great in this series. I was surprised that they took a game, but even more surprised that they gave the Ducks some trouble in the series overall. But they still appeared to be overachieving and the Ducks were just too strong.
Pre-series Thoughts: I was shocked to see the Flames get out of round 1, but the Ducks just might be the strongest team in this year's playoffs (other than maybe the Rangers). I just can't see a way the Flames get through this series, and I'd be surprised if they take a game.

Blackhawks (1) vs. Wild (2)
My prediction: Wild in 7
RESULT: Blackhawks in 4
Post-Series Thoughts: Wow. Dubnyk disappeared and the Wild fell apart. They looked like a different team at times. That's not to take anything away from the Hawks, who played great hockey. But I expected this one to go longer for sure, whoever ended up winning.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Wild have been one of the better teams the second half of the season (overcoming a terrible start), and stunned the Blues. Crawford has been shaky in net, and Dubnyk has been brilliant. He made me a believer in round 1, and I think goaltending makes the difference in this series. It won't be easy, and the Hawks may be a bit in the Wild's head after the last two years, but I think the Wild take it in 7.


Note: my picks above are based on who I think will win, not on who I want to win. In all series except CHI-MIN, my picks are the opposite of who I'm rooting for, based on draft pick implications for the Flyers. CHI-MIN has no impact on the Flyers pick(s).

2015 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, Round 1

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rangers (1) vs. Penguins (4)
My prediction: Rangers in 6
RESULT: Rangers in 5
Post-Series Thoughts: Really no surprise here. Crysby was a no-show and the Rangers just took it to them in just about every aspect of the game.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Rangers are a much stronger team than the Penguins, and they've been playing some great hockey lately. You can never count out Crysby, but given his playoffs track record, I think the most the Pens may be able to steal is 2 games. Rangers in 6.

Canadiens (1) vs. Senators (4)
My prediction: Canadiens in 5
RESULT: Canadiens in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Sens put up way more of a fight than I expected, and the Habs certainly didn't dominate. But in the end they sealed it up without too much trouble.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I think the Senators were the team that accidentally snuck in this year. I think the Habs dominate this series. Sens may steal 1, but this one will be all Habs.

Lightning (2) vs. Red Wings (3)
My prediction: Lightning in 7
RESULT: Lightning in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: Called this one almost exactly. Wings stepped up their game but the Lightning held them off.
Pre-Series Thoughts: I almost want to pick the Wings for this one. The Lightning have overachieved, I believe, and the Wings have underachieved. Also the Lightning seem to have trouble the last few years in closing out series, while the Wings are perennial playoff contenders. Still, I think the Lightning strike down the Wings in 7.

Capitals (2) vs. Islanders (3)
My prediction: Islanders in 6
RESULT: Capitals in 7
Post-Series Thoughts: Well my prediction here was a bust. Ovechkin was just OK, I thought...moments of brilliance and moments of nothing, and he ended up with a -4 for the series...but the Caps actually played well together and edged out the Isles. Let's see if they can make a long run or if they'll be out in two.
Pre-Series Thoughts: There is a part of me that wants to say that this is finally the year that Ovechkin gets the Caps into a deep playoff run. Certainly the team around him is more solid, with better coaching than they've had for a while. But the Islanders are playing great hockey, and I have to go with history here. I think Ovie will be great but overall the Isles play better as a team and will take it in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Ducks (1) vs. Jets (4)
My prediction: Ducks in 4
RESULT: Ducks in 4
Post-Series Thoughts: The Jets made this a much closer series than I expected in terms of individual games; the scores of most of the games was close. But in the end they couldn't hang in the series with the Ducks.
Pre-series Thoughts: I don't see any way the Jets can hang with the Ducks. The Jets are the weakest team in this year's playoffs, IMO, with the potential exception of the Senators (and I still think the Jets are worse). No way the Jets take this series, and I doubt they even get a game unless the Ducks completely fall apart.

Blues (1) vs. Wild (4)
My prediction: Blues in 5
RESULT: Wild in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: This was, indeed, the series that surprised me the most. Credit this one to Dubnyk; he stood on his head in this series. Also the Wild seemed to want it more. Blues at times seemed a bit ambivalent where the Wild pushed hard almost every shift. Nicely done, Wild.
Pre-Series Thoughts: The Wild have been one of the better teams the second half of the season (overcoming a terrible start), but I give the edge to the Blues because I believe they are a deeper team and have a better coach in Hitchcock. He understands strategy and gets his team to play better in the playoffs most years. Coming from the way they've been playing of late, I don't see the Wild doing much here. However, this one may be the series that surprises me the most.

Predators (2) vs. Blackhawks (3)
My prediction: Blackhawks in 6
RESULT: Blackhawks in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: The Predators played great hockey in this series. But they sorely missed Weber, and the Hawks are just a deeper team.
Pre-Series Thoughts: This is the best the Predators have been in years, and a Blackhawks team that has underachieved. But the Hawks are a deep team with lots of talent, and I just think they'll step it up in the playoffs.

Canucks (2) vs. Flames (3)
My prediction: Canucks in 7
RESULT: Flames in 6
Post-Series Thoughts: Well, this wasn't one of the closest series. Would Miller have made a difference? Possibly. But give the Flames credit. They played beyond their abilities, in my opinion. I don't mean that as a slight; I mean that they played really well as a team. Team play always trumps individual effort, and the Flames did just that in this series. Kudos to them.
Pre-Series Thoughts: This has the potential to be the closest series this playoffs. These teams split their season series at two games a piece, and seem pretty evenly matched. I think the Canucks are a slightly deeper team that is more well built for the playoffs. It could be that a missing Miller may be the difference, but I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt.

The Church: The Broken, Dysfunctional Necessity

I talk to a lot of people that feel that the Church (both local and universal) is dysfunctional, hypocritical, and unnecessary to living a life of faithful discipleship ("I believe in Jesus, but I don't need the church," etc). And, by and large, on the first two counts, they are absolutely right. On the last count, however, they are dead wrong. Let me explain.

The church absolutely is dysfunctional. There isn't a single church anywhere in the world that is not dysfunctional in some way or another. The truth is, though, that there isn't a single organization...of any type...anywhere in the world that isn't dysfunctional. Every organization is made up of people. Every person is imperfect and dysfunctional in some way. So it follows that organizations, made up of people, are also imperfect and dysfunctional in some way.

The church is also absolutely hypocritical. Again, every person is hypocritical in some way. We all say some things and do the opposite. It's part of human nature. Churches, then, are the same...except on a magnified level, because the world is always watching and observing.

The last point, though, is flat out wrong. One cannot be a faithful disciple of Jesus and ignore God's church. So, the question becomes: why must I go to church in order to be a Christian? Well, this depends on how we define a "Christian". If it's simply someone who acknowledges Jesus as the Messiah, then church is unnecessary. But the Bible defines a Christian as someone who is in a  relationship with God; someone who gives themselves over to the lordship of Jesus in his/her life. And being in relationship with God means we trust and follow his Word (the Bible). And what does the Bible say about church? Hebrews 10:25: "Let us not give up meeting together, as some are in the habit of doing, but let us encourage one another--and all the more as you see the Day approaching." 

In fact, the Bible talks about gathering with other Christians a lot. It makes it clear that this is important. God's expectation that we live in community with one another even reflects his own triune nature: God himself exists in community.

So what do we do with the first two issues? If God expects us to be part of the church, then how do we deal with the fact that all churches are, in some way, dysfunctional, broken, and hypocritical? Well, again, all organizations are dysfunctional and hypocritical. The important thing is to be part of a church that is willing to admit and own its dysfunction and to adapt and address it.

Here's the reality: I've been in ministry for 15 years, having served as a denominational leader and a pastor, and even I get frustrated with the church. For the last few years I've been part of the healthiest church I've experienced, and even there, I've lately been frustrated by some of the dysfunctions I've run into. There is a major hang-up on image (and I've even heard it justified as "strategy" to reach certain people); there is an insider mentality among the leadership that is very cliquish and excludes people not based on abilities or competence, but on how well they fit with the clique; and (perhaps most frustratingly, for me), there is so much focus on drawing in new people (non-Christians) and growing the church that it happens at the expense of growing individuals into deeper relationship with Jesus, even to the extent that people are sometimes actively prevented from going as deep as they want to. There is a mentality that individual growth should be left up to the individual person to cultivate and pursue. That's great in theory; every person should own his/her own spiritual growth. But in reality, people just don't do it without direction and assistance. So we end up with a church that is big and dynamic but without a lot of depth. 

The only other thing that frustrates me as much is when church go to the opposite extreme (which is even more prevalent) and focus solely on growing more knowledgeable Christians, at the expense of reaching anyone that hasn't already been a Christian for 30 years.

Still, even in our moments of greatest frustration, we realize that the church, even with its dysfunctions and brokenness, is part of God's plan for us. Dysfunctional churches reflect the dysfunctional people that comprise it; and being in community and relationship with dysfunctional and broken people is good for us...because we, too, are dysfunctional and broken. The reason community matters...the reason the church matters...is because it teaches us how to be broken and dysfunctional together, and how only our perfect God is the answer to our brokenness. The church trains us how to love the unlovely, how to love those that are broken and dysfunctional...just as God loves us, with all of our brokenness and dysfunction. And that's good news!

Childlike Faith

When I was putting my son to bed tonight, he was telling me that he was scared because of some "scary" show he had watched (a kids show that mentioned a vampire in it) and because Minecraft has zombies in it. Mostly this is just his routine for trying to prolong going to bed. Nevertheless, I told him that God is with him all the time and will protect him. He said, "OK" and I came back downstairs. A few minutes later, he came down, and said, "Daddy, I have an idea for how you can calm me down when I'm scared." So I asked how, and he said, "When you said God is always with me...that's really cool. Just tell me that and it will calm me down."

So I told him he can tell himself that, and that he can pray to God himself to help him not be scared. He said okay, and I said, "Why don't you try it right now?" So he did. He bowed his little head and he said, "Dear God, you are bigger than any zombie or vampire. Please help me not to be afraid. Amen."

Sometimes kids say things (or word things a certain way) that melt our hearts...sometimes because they're cute, but sometimes because they contain deep theological truths that we adults miss. There is a reason that Jesus told us to become like little children (Mt. 18:3). This is often interpreted to mean "innocent" as children are. While that's true, I think it also means, "Keep things simple" like children do. For my son, he doesn't have to know a lot about God or the Bible, or to have some globe-spanning faith that can make mountains move. He just has to trust that God is bigger than zombies or vampires, and that God can help him not be afraid.

I meet more adults who are scared of...whatever...than kids. Adults worry about all kinds of things, and they have fears of completely irrational things (except spiders; that's a completely rational fear!). Even adults who profess, and demonstrate, strong faith in God don't understand this basic yet deeply profound spiritual truth that children often grasp. God is bigger than zombies and vampires. God is bigger than [insert whatever you're afraid of, big or small, rational or irrational, silly or real]. God can help us not be afraid.

This doesn't mean God won't allow anything bad to happen to us. But God does delight when we have childlike faith...faith that asks Him to help us not be afraid, to be "strong and courageous." We are called to be like children in their innocence, true. But we are also challenged to be like children in their simple understanding of God and in our willingness to trust in his omnipotence and his ability to help us overcome our fear.

Gratitude vs. Entitlement

As we celebrate Thanksgiving, it seems quite appropriate to highlight the fact that gratitude is the opposite of entitlement. The more we feel entitled...to our money, our belongings, our families, our [insert whatever]...the less we feel any real sense of gratitude. After all, if we are owed what we have (or what we don't), then we don't need to be grateful about it.

Nothing highlights these opposites more than the transition from Thanksgiving into Black Friday. What has been set aside as a day to celebrate and give thanks for all of our blessings has become more and more corrupted by the entitlement of the grand daddy of all shopping days, Black Friday. Think about it...we've watched Black Friday deals happen earlier and earlier - to the point where stores are now opening on Thanksgiving evening in order for people to get a jump on their shopping. After all, they're entitled to get a good deal, right? Right?!?

Let's be intentional about reversing this alarming trend: instead of getting caught up in the hype and the entitlement of the post-Thanksgiving shopping frenzy, let's take even more time to be grateful, and allow our gratitude to spill over into Black Friday (and beyond) rather than vice versa. The remedy for entitlement is gratitude, after all, so the remedy for our culture's misplaced priorities is to be intentional about ensuring we stand for something different. Christians, I'm talking to you. Don't just say, "Oh well, that's just how it is." No. Don't accept it. Fight it, and fight for a counter-cultural revolution. That's what Jesus did, and what God calls us to do as well.

And for his revolutionary love, I am eternally grateful.

Charisma vs. Leadership

I've found something to be true in many places and I think it hurts the organizations in which it occurs. Often times charisma is confused for leadership. What I mean is, sometimes the assumption is made that if someone has charisma, they must be a good leader

Charisma is, simply put, "compelling attractiveness or charm". Put another way, it can be defined as the ability to draw people to you...being someone that others want to be around. This is an important quality, and one that can give a leader a leg up in the ability to create a sphere of influence. But too often it is automatically equated with leadership itself, which is a faulty and often dangerous assumption.

When I evaluate leadership, I look at these six factors:
1.  Influence. Leaders cultivate a sphere of influence. After all, a leader without followers is no leader at all.
2.  Drive. Some might call this initiative. Put simply, a leader leads. This implies a destination...a leader has to lead somewhere. Great leaders are intentional and active, not accidental or passive. Some call this vision, but it's more than just having vision; it's a willingness to impart vision and catalyze people to want to journey to that place.
3.  Competence. A leader should have some skill or giftedness or wisdom or insight that can be used to do something special with the people he/she leads.
4.  Sacrifice. Some call this a "servant's heart". But being a servant almost always requires self-sacrifice for the sake of those you lead. Selfish leaders often end up doing more harm to their followers than good.
5.  Balance. A great leader knows how to balance time, priorities, and energy, including having a good sense of margin and consistent and healthy boundaries.
6. Integrity. Please hear this: integrity does not mean "someone who never messes up." This word is too often used to imply that, and it's frustrating. Integrity, to me, is comprised of these three factors (these are not exhaustive, of course, but in my experience are three helpful gauges of integrity):

• Transparency: someone who is willing to be real and honest, and to take ownership of his/her failures and shortcomings. 
• Stewardship: someone who demonstrates healthy stewardship (not just financial; in every area...time, priorities, boundaries, etc. See #5). 
• Modeling: leads by example. You cannot lead someone somewhere that you have not been.

Note that charisma is nowhere on the list. Of course, charisma can automatically create number 1. If people are drawn to a charismatic person, you could say they have influence. But typically that type of influence is short-lived. A great leader doesn't just accept those that are naturally drawn to him/her, a great leader works hard to cultivate and create a sphere of influence (which speaks to #2, Drive!). In fact, I would take a leader who has zero charisma but works hard to cultivate a sphere of influence over one with tons of charisma who doesn't work at it at all.

A couple of years ago a friend was with some people on a trip, and when he came back, he was talking about one of the other guys that had gone with him. I'll call him Joe. He said, "Joe's really a leader." I asked what he meant, and he explained that Joe's really got a lot of charisma. But I started to think about Joe, and evaluating him as a leader. I considered his sphere of influence: nonexistent. I considered what he does with the few people that he hangs around with: very little. And I considered what particular competencies he has to do something special even if he has a sphere of influence: minimal. I don't know Joe well enough to evaluate his balance or integrity. But already this assumption that charisma equals leadership starts falling apart.

Charisma is nice, but I'd say it's sort of a bonus. It's not the be-all and end-all that some often make it. In fact, some of the most effective leaders I've ever been around are not people that I would consider charismatic at all. But moving down this list of characteristics that I use to evaluate leaders, the very best of them get almost all of them right.

The larger insight is this: we "approve" or "dismiss" certain people for all kinds of reasons, many of which are, in the end, foolish. We should pay more attention to the real values that matter than we do to the superficial, deceptive factors that can fool is into over- or under- estimating someone.

What Do You Worship?

Humans were created to worship. By this, I don't mean that we created with the capability to worship. I mean that embedded in our DNA is the compulsion to worship. We worship, whether we like it or not, whether we want to or not.

The question is, what do we worship?

Whatever we give the most of our time, our energy, our focus...those are the things that we worship. Worship is, simply put, extravagant respect or admiration for or devotion to an object of esteem. If we find ourselves spending an inordinate amount of time or mental energy, or money on something, there's a fair chance that it's something that we worship.

God's desire is that we give him our worship. So, Christians, if we compare the things in our lives that we give most of our attention, money, and time...which things win out? Are they things that are not God? Where does God fall in the mix? If our devotion is going to things other than God, we need to re-evaluate. Anything that we worship that is not God is an idol...something that takes God's rightful place as the object of our worship.

A quick note: God doesn't need our worship. He's God. The reason God wants our worship is not for his sake; it's for ours. Worshiping is, in a sense, submission. It's elevating something above ourselves. If that something is money...we're submitting to money. If that something is sports, we're submitting to sports. If that something is self, we're submitting to self.

The things we worship, the things we submit to, have power over us. Putting worship where it belongs...on God...is submitting to God and giving him power over us. And that is as it should be. God desires our worship because it is beneficial and good for us to submit to him, to acknowledge the truth that God is God and we are not; that without him, we are nothing. God is the reason we have life and breath.

Again, we all worship something or someone. We were created to worship; it is unavoidable. The question is, what do you worship? Is your worship where it should be, on God? Or is it on an idol. Or many idols? How do we need to reorder things in our lives so that the focus of our worship is in its rightful place (on God)?

Being Grateful

As Thanksgiving approaches, I find myself thinking a lot about what it means to be grateful. I don't mean this in the sense we typically think about during this time of year ("I'm thankful for my family," and so forth). What I mean is more in a broad sense. In many ways, gratitude is the opposite of entitlement.

Many of us fall into the entitlement trap, feeling that life, or God, or...whoever/whatever owes us something. We feel we deserve x, y or, z because of what we've done or just who we are. Somehow we should be provided with [insert whatever] because [insert reason].

Yet in many ways gratitude is the opposite of entitlement. It acknowledges our feelings of thankfulness because in many ways we have gotten what we don't deserve. Christians, especially, should have a constant sense of gratitude, because God's grace and mercy is exactly what we don't deserve. Yet we still find ourselves feeling entitled.

What is the remedy, then? I think a good start is to constantly remind ourselves that God is God and we are not. He knows what we need more than we do. He is always working in our favor. He is for us. And we should always recognize exactly how much it is that God has really done for us. Because remembering that constantly is the only way to rest consistently in a perspective of gratitude. It is the only way to keep ourselves from falling into the entitlement trap.